Strategic “defensivism” and post-reset blues: US–Russian nuclear arms reductions,missile defenses and minimum deterrence

US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy may be moving, by design and by inadvertence, toward a posture of strategic “defensivism”. Strategic “defensivism” emphasizes the overlapping and reinforcing impact of: (1) reductions in US, Russian and possibly other strategic nuclear forces, possibly down to the level of “minimum deterrence,” (2) deployment of improved strategic and/or theater antimissile defenses for the US, NATO allies and other partners; and (3) additional reliance on conventional military forces for some missions hitherto preferentially assigned to nuclear weapons. This article deals with the first two of these aspects only: the interaction between missile defenses and offensive force reductions in US–Russian strategy and policy. The findings are that stable deterrence as between the USA and Russia is possible at lower than New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty levels, but reductions below 1000 deployed long-range weapons for each state, toward a true minimum deterrent posture, will require multilateral as opposed to bilateral coordination of arms limitations. Missile defenses might provide some denial capability against light attacks by states with small arsenals, but they still fall short of meaningful damage limitation as between powers capable of massive nuclear strikes.     

一类二次Hamilton系统在三次多项式扰动下的极限环

通过计算一类二次Hamilton系统的高阶Mel′nikov函数,对该系统在三次多项式扰动下分岔的极限环个数进行了估计。     

串并联结构分解目标毁伤评估

针对仿真中空地导弹攻击复杂目标的毁伤评估问题,提出了一种基于串并联结构分解的目标毁伤评估算法,并引入了修复时间作为毁伤评估的一项指标.该算法首先按结构布局和功能关系将目标分解成多个子系统,并组成串并联结构图,然后根据导弹的精确落点对每个子系统进行毁伤评估,最后综合所有子系统的毁伤情况得出目标整体的毁伤程度和恢复正常所需...     

基于ADC模型的坦克炮射击效能评估

运用美国工业界武器系统效能咨询委员会(WSEIAC)评估武器系统效能的方法,综合坦克炮射击的特点,建立完善了适合坦克炮射击效能评价方法的数学模型,并对模型中各有关参数进行了初定,使效能分析的结果更接近实际.     

一种航空武器数据链MAC协议设计与研究

MAC协议是航空武器数据链组网通信的重要技术,网络的性能依赖于所采用的多址接入协议,也是航空武器数据链研究的难点之一。固定分配、竞争和预约三大类MAC协议各有优缺点以及适应场景,需要根据应用需求设计对应的多址接入协议,以满足通信网络的战术和技术性能指标。在分析数字化战场通信网络——战术数据链组网通信应用的主要MAC协议的基础上,结合航空武器数据链的通信特点和体系结构,提出一种基于固定分配TDMA的航空武器数据链MAC协议——ODTCFMA协议,并对协议的时延性能进行了仿真和分析。分析结果表明,该协议能够同时满足编队战术协同和武器制导的低时延要求,对航空武器数据链的研究具有一定的借鉴意义。     

地空导弹反导作战拦截次数计算模型及仿真

在分析地空导弹武器系统拦截来袭目标过程的基础上,通过分析地空导弹发射区纵深建立了地空导弹武器系统可拦截次数模型.利用该模型可计算地空导弹武器系统对单个来袭目标在杀伤区内的拦截次数.仿真结果揭示了地空导弹武器系统在不同目标特性(速度、高度、航路捷径)下对目标的可拦截次数的影响.     

登陆作战中直接火力准备的模糊指派模型

在登陆作战中,直接火力准备起着至关重要的作用,直接关系到登陆兵能否冲击上陆成功.考虑到实际作战中的模糊不确定性和多属性问题,利用模糊数学理论与多属性决策方法,将指派问题拓展到模糊条件下,针对登陆作战中如何发挥直接火力准备的最大效能问题,建立了模糊状态下的多目标指派模型,提供了求解方法,简要地对模型进行了动态化研究,并通过一仿真算例说明模型的应用效果较好,能为未来登陆作战提供辅助决策支持.     

一种评价伪装目标雷达发现概率的方法

为简化描述脉冲积累数、雷达参数及目标后向散射截面与发现概率、虚警概率之间的关系,结合伪装效果检测情况,提出了一种评价目标伪装前后雷达发现概率的方法,即构建评价函数对上述关系进行特征逼近研究.结果表明,该评价函数能反映伪装前后目标RCS与背景RCS比值的变化规律,且计算过程简单,可用于雷达检测评估.     

鲁棒D-稳定输出反馈H∞控制方法及其仿真

考虑了一类不确定系统的具有闭环极点约束的输出反馈H∞控制,运用基于线性矩阵不等式的方法(LMI),由二次D-稳定导出了鲁棒D-稳定的输出反馈控制器存在的充分条件和设计方法.该方法虽然具有一定的保守性,但求解方便有效,且易于扩展到多目标鲁棒控制.最后,仿真说明了该设计方法的正确性.     

On optimal system designs in reliability‐economics frameworks

Reliability Economics is a field that can be defined as the collection of all problems in which there is tension between the performance of systems of interest and their cost. Given such a problem, the aim is to resolve the tension through an optimization process that identifies the system which maximizes some appropriate criterion function (e.g. expected lifetime per unit cost). In this paper, we focus on coherent systems of n independent and identically distributed (iid) components and mixtures thereof, and characterize both a system's performance and cost as functions of the system's signature vector (Samaniego, IEEE Trans Reliabil (1985) 69–72). For a given family of criterion functions, a variety of optimality results are obtained for systems of arbitrary order n. Approximations are developed and justified when the underlying component distribution is unknown. Assuming the availability of an auxiliary sample of N component failure times, the asymptotic theory of L‐estimators is adapted for the purpose of establishing the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators of the expected ordered failure times of the n components of the systems under study. These results lead to the identification of ε‐optimal systems relative to the chosen criterion function. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007